The race started about five weeks ago with three candidates and is ending with two — Democrat Bill Owens and surprise contender Doug Hoffman, a member of the state Conservative Party.

Republican Dierdre Scozzafava abruptly quit the race over the weekend and backed Owens after Hoffman's supporters accused her of being too liberal for the largely Republican district because of her support of abortion rights and same-sex marriage.

Hoffman started at a distant third and was viewed as a spoiler at best, cutting away at Scozzafava and opening the door for Owens. But promiment Republicans, including former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, endorsed Hoffman instead of the party-picked Scozzafava.

With gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, this race was not expected to become a referendum on anything, but between the Republican infighting and attempts by Democrats to portray that as a sign they could retain their majority in the 2010 midterms, Tuesday's special election took on unanticipated importance.

A Hoffman win could force Republicans in Washington to pay closer attention to their votes and positions on issues, rather than counting on the Republican label to get them elected.

"The reality is that the grass roots is not going to walk lockstep on these decisions and so that's a reality (the party is) going to have to deal with," said Tony Fabrizio, a Washington-based Republican pollster and strategist.

An Owens win could signal renewed strength among Democrats, or at least reassure them of Republicans' perceived weakness. It's a seat that has been strongly Republican for decades and is one of only three in the state's 29-seat delegation held by the party. Republican John McHugh vacated the seat in September to become Army secretary.

"They're in a civil war over the definition of their party," said Paul Blank, a Democratic consultant. "And the extremists have won."

No matter the outcome, Republicans will be sorting out their identity as the party tries to strike a balance between growing its ranks and preserving the values that set it apart from the Democratic Party.

"I think that the Republican Party is broad enough to handle many different candidates, but the fact is that I'm a common sense Conservative Republican — I am not a radical," Hoffman said Monday. "The point is that Assemblywoman Scozzafava was not a moderate Republican, she was an ultraliberal Republican."